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US retail sales preview: What to expect in EUR/USD?

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The FX markets witnessed broad based USD selling in the European session today, pushing the EUR/USD pair above 1.14 levels ahead of the second most important economic data release in the US – the monthly advance retail sales report.

US domestic consumption is anaemic

Amid the aggregate demand deficiency in the global economy, the Fed would need to see a spike in the domestic consumption/household spending before it hikes rates. So far, neither the household spending nor the corporate spending (durable goods) has showed any spike; making matters worse for the Fed.

Moreover, talk of rate hikes and the resulting strength in the USD index has weighed over the US exports. Consequently, a rise in the domestic spending is much needed for the fed to hike rates.

The estimates call for a rise of 0.2% in advance retail sales in September. The core is also seen rising 0.3%. In case, the numbers miss estimates or fall into the negative territory, the march rate hike probability (currently at 42%) would fall sharply. Poor data would also heighten concerns regarding the global growth slowdown and could trigger another bout of risk aversion. On the other hand, a positive figure could inject fresh lease of life into risk assets.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

For EUR/USD, it is all about how the markets read the actual figure. A negative response is more likely in case the figure prints below estimates/into negative territory. In such case, the EUR/USD pair could extend gains to 1.1460 (Sep 18 high), above which the prices could rise to 1.15-1.1561 (Aug 26 high). On the other hand, a better-than-expected figure could trigger fresh risk-on rally and push the pair lower to 1.1377 (daily low). A break below the same could push the pair down to 1.1318 (trend line support).

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