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USDCAD: Poloz Sticks to the Script as the pair finds buying interest - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that USDCAD has found modest renewed buying after hitting the 1.2900 level last week but we do not find a compelling case at the moment to look for significant upside in funds and instead we think price action will be more benign for the next several weeks.

Key Quotes

“At the moment, spot is moving further away from our daily FV estimate (which currently stands at 1.2880). We recommend investors to be patient when it comes to USDCAD and as regular readers know, we think a period of persistent weakness in the CAD, rather than renewed weakness, is more likely and is a precondition to facilitate and sustain a positive evolution in the data.”

“The next major upleg will need to be a policy induced catalyst we think, and at this time, we do not see one over the near-term horizon. Note however, that manufacturing sales later this week is expected to be quite weak which may keep USDCAD elevated.”

“Governor Poloz’s speech in Washington yesterday on “integrating financial stability into monetary policy” reinforced the notion that the Bank of Canada is content on the sidelines for now and still ultimately views monetary policy as the last line of defence in dealing with the financial imbalances of the economy. Instead, the Governor puts the onus on borrowers and lenders to make responsible decisions as well as macroprudential measures to correct for these imbalances.”

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