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China sees bounce in export numbers in September - ING

FXStreet (Delhi) – Tim Condon, Chief Economist at ING, notes that the big sequential trade bounces lend credence to the view the July-August financial market turmoil caused activity to be postponed, not to spiral as September’s -3.7% YoY export growth was better than expected and up from August’s - 5.5% (consensus -6.0%).

Key Quotes

“The 4.4% MoM bounce was the biggest in four months and put the US dollar value at $205.6bn back in $200-220bn range that prevailed in the second half of 2014 (first figure).”

“The July-August commodity price crash was evident in the 20.4% decline in imports. The price effect is evident in the downshift in the US dollar value of imports (first figure), which we expect will persist until the impact of the 2H14 and July-August 2015 commodity price crashes fade.”

“The sequential bounce clawed back much of the big August decline. The trade balance posted a $60.34bn surplus in September, up from $60.2bn in August. At $423bn the year-to-date surplus was $195bn wider on the year (second figure).”

“We forecast a $600bn full-year surplus ($383bn in 2014). The big sequential export and import bounces lend credence to the view that July-August weakness was transitory, related to the financial market turmoil, and now that markets have regained a bit of composure, activity postponed from those month is materializing.”

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