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BoJ unlikely to ease this month – MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, suggests that the minutes from the BoJ’s policy meeting on the 14th and 15th September were released overnight and the minutes are dated as the BoJ has since already met again at the start of this month.

Key Quotes

“However, the content of the minutes support our Tokyo analysts’ view that the BoJ is unlikely to ease policy this month. The minutes revealed that many board members pointed to an acceleration in annual rate of CPI excluding fresh food and energy, and a rise in an indicator which shows the share of products whose price has risen compared to those who have fallen.”

“The recent firming of core inflation is reassuring the BoJ that the underlying trend in inflation remains higher which does not yet justify further easing. A sharper negative hit to the economic growth outlook will likely be required to trigger further easing.”

“In these circumstances, we continue to believe that the yen can trade on firmer footing in the near-term supported by concerns over slowing global growth. USD/JPY remains delicately poised above its 55-week moving average at around 119.50. A break and close below would likely trigger accelerated yen strength in the near-term. BoJ easing this month maybe required to prevent a stronger yen.”

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