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UK inflation preview: What to expect in GBP/USD pair?

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair witnessed an early spike to a session high of 1.5387 levels on the back of Merger and Acquisition (M&A) news and now continues to trade around 1.5380 ahead of the monthly CPI report in the UK.

Focus on UK core CPI number

The cost of living as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) in the UK is seen unchanged at 0.0% m/m and y/y in September. The core inflation is seen rising to 1.1% y/y from 1.0%. The headline figure may not come into play so long as it is not horribly weak.

Moreover, minor dip in the headline figure into the negative territory may not be a much of a shock given the slide in the energy prices is a well known fact. Consequently, the focus is likely to be on the core number, which if prints higher than estimates could send Sterling higher across the board.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

Sterling’s rise to 1.5387 indicates the currency is on a extremely strong footing in technical terms, heading into the CPI report. In case, the headline number and the core number tick higher, the pair could easily take out the immediate resistance at 1.5411 (50-DMA) and rise to 1.5483 (100-DMA). Meanwhile, a weak core CPI print along with a dismal headline figure could push the spot back to its 200-DMA at 1.5319. However, bearish regaining control seems possible only below 1.53 (23.6% of 1.5930-1.5107, and a strong support since Thursday).

Post CPI reversal ahead?

The options activity indicates a potential risk of reversal post UK CPI as gamma scalpers manage their risk of option positions by keeping the underlying (GBP/USD) within a limited range.

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