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German ZEW to inch higher, UK inflation to dip back – TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, expects the German ZEWindex to print a higher number in today’s release while the UK inflation is likelt to fall further to negative territory.

Key Quotes

“The German ZEW’s current macroeconomic conditions index didn’t even flinch at the volatility on financial markets and in EMs in August and September, and seems to have brushed off the VW scandal so far as well, so for this reason, we expect continued gains in October with an increase to 70 (consensus: 64). The same can’t be said for the ZEW macroeconomic expectations index, which has been steadily declining since the spring. We expect a further leg down from 12.1 in September to 8.0 in October (consensus: 6.5).”

“UK inflation is likely to dip back down into negative territory as the continued drag from low oil prices hits the September data. We expect a reading of -0.1% y/y versus consensus of 0.0%. Core inflation, meanwhile, is likely to have ticked up a notch to 1.1% y/y (same as consensus), as momentum in this component has been building in recent months. September’s data won’t influence the MPC one way or another – we expect them to remain on hold until May 2016, at which point inflation will have moved closer to their 2% target.”

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