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US: Consumption top, industry flop - Commerzbank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Dr Christoph Balz, Research Analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that this week’s data will likely illustrate that the US economy remains driven by household consumption whereas the industrial sector is more of a drag. At the same time, the drop in oil prices has depressed consumer prices.

Key Quotes

“However, this is a temporary phenomenon; the underlying trend in inflation is likely to continue hovering at just under 2%. They should support the picture of the US economy in the third quarter being particularly driven by household consumption which, in turn, benefited from low interest rates, the labour market recovery as well as lower oil and gasoline prices.”

“The industrial sector, on the other hand, is suffering from poor foreign demand and the strong dollar. So far this year, production only increased in July and another minor decline on the month also appears to be on the cards in September (forecast: -0.1%, consensus: -0.3%).”

“In September, consumer prices look set to have been 0.2% lower than in August as a result (consensus: -0.2%).”

“On balance, we therefore believe this week’s real economy and inflation data will signal no new trends and will fail to deliver any major impetus for the Fed’s forthcoming interest rate decisions in October and December.”

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