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EUR/USD forecast: focus on risk trends – Commerzbank and Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD remains in the upper bound of the recent range around 1.1370 against a backdrop of a generalized lack of direction in the global markets.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued spot “has broken higher through the 1.1330 21st September high and in doing so opened the to the 1.1440/68 region, where the May, June and September highs were made. Above here lies the 55 week ma at 1.1472 and the 2014-2015 downtrend at 1.1468, we would ideally expect this to hold the topside and provoke failure”.

In addition, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Signe Roed-Frederiksen noted “We see limited EUR downside from the ECB near term as a pick-up in inflation (albeit on base effects) takes some pressure off policy makers to deliver aggressively near term. Furthermore, with last week's FOMC minutes revealing that the September no-hike decision was not really the close call it was marketed to be by some FOMC members, we think it will take a sustained reversal in the US economic surprise index, which has made a turn for the worse since late August, to fuel more aggressive pricing of the Fed in the currency market; this is despite the fact the Fed maintains that a 2015 hike remains likely”.

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