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AUD - Where to enter shorts? - Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Rob Rennie, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the research house is sticking with their current forecast for the Australian dollar to finish the year around USD 0.68 and fall further to USD 0.66 in the first quarter of 2016 but what will it take for the current aggressive rally in the A$ to start to turn around and at what level should we look to hedge or sell the A$?

Key Quotes

“We are set to see evidence of a sharp rise in Japanese demand for A$ assets in September; that equity related demand for the A$ has been rising strongly and that upcoming bond redemption/ dividend payments will drive yet further demand.”

“In the short term, therefore, I can see AUD up to 0.7380, possibly 0.7410/20 and maybe slightly beyond. However, much beyond that and I would become increasingly confident in Bill's view i.e. that markets are complacent on the Fed; that the outlook for iron ore prices will deteriorate as additional supply comes on-stream in coming weeks; and that the chronic trade deficit will all help to undermine the A$ into the end of the year. So as we approach 0.7380/ 0.7420 I will be increasingly arguing to hedge or to sell AUD "at levels that we would be most surprised to see persist into 2016".”

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