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USDCAD: Business outlook survey and employment report in focus - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggest that the employment report for September is likely to show a gain of 20k jobs (market: +10k) while the business outlook survey will be the more important data set to watch.

Key Quotes

“We expect part-time employment to drive the bulk of the gains. At face value, our above-consensus call should suggest more downside for USDCAD but we view this as more of a knee-jerk reaction. The employment numbers are inherently volatile and hold little economic meaning on a month to month basis.”

“Instead, the more important release for the day is the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey which we expect will continue to reveal a cautious undertone. We expect the balance of opinion of future sales to decline to 0 in Q3 from 8.0. But the devil is in the details and we will be watching investment intentions and how firms describe changes within their industries.”

“The BOS is very important in framing how the BoC will communicate at future meetings. The BOS should reveal additional spending cuts in the energy sector (as telegraphed in a speech by Governor Poloz recently), but it will be just as important to see how manufacturing firms describe the global outlook and any benefits from the lower Canadian dollar. Ultimately, we think it is the latter that will be important for markets to digest. With the way the domestic data has unfolded, we think the Bank will remain sidelined for some time.”

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