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UK rate hike coming fresh out of oven - ING

FXStreet (Delhi) – James Knightley Senior Economist at ING, suggests that even though inflation is zero and financial markets are focusing on global growth concerns, the BoE sounds relatively upbeat, suggesting markets may be too cautious in terms of their assessment of the likely start point of policy tightening.

Key Quotes

“The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged yesterday with Ian McCafferty again the only MPC member voting for a rate rise. The minutes to the meeting showed that the MPC remains pretty upbeat on growth prospects with the economy expected to have expanded 0.6% in 3Q15, which is around the trend rate of growth.”

“Interestingly, they continued to downplay emerging market slowdown worries, stating that “there had so far been few signs of a material effect on business and consumer confidence in the advanced economies”.”

“If financial market risk appetite continues to improve as well then we would suspect that Ian McCafferty will not be alone in voting for a rate rise at the November MPC meeting. We continue to look for the BoE to raise rates in the first half of 2016, well ahead of the 4Q16/1Q17 move financial markets are currently pricing.”

“Indeed, Governor Mark Carney’s comments from Lima, Peru, overnight emphasised that the BoE’s moves aren’t contingent on the Federal Reserve (although we strongly doubt that they will want to move ahead of the Fed given the potential impact on sterling). Furthermore, he again repeated that domestic factors are key and that the decisions as to whether to raise interest rates “comes into sharper relief around the turn of the year.”

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