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EUR/USD neutral, affected by Fed, ECB and risk - BTMU

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Analysts from The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, point out that the bias in EUR/USD remains neutral, with the US dollar trading softer in the near-term after the market pushed back rate hike expectations in the US.

Key Quotes:

“The euro continues to remain range bound against the US dollar in the near-term. The release of the disappointing non-farm payrolls report for September is still weighing modestly on the US dollar having prompted the market to push back expectations for the first Fed rate hike into next year. It has also triggered a tentative improvement in global investor risk sentiment which has helped to offset upward pressure for EUR/USD from dampened Fed rate hike expectations.”

“We continue to believe that the Fed could still raise rates this year especially if financial conditions continue to ease. The upcoming speech from Fed Vice Chair Dudley in the week ahead could prove important given prior to the release of the latest payrolls report he still favoured raising rates this year alongside Fed Chair Yellen.”

“The euro is also being undermined in the near-term by building expectations of further ECB monetary easing. The latest German factory orders and trade reports for August have disappointed expectations although leading surveys still signal that the moderate economic recovery in the euro-zone still likely continues. We doubt that the ECB will ease policy further at their next policy meeting.”

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