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BoE policy unchanged, optimistic on UK’s prospects - ING

FXStreet (Delhi) – James Knightley, Research Analyst at ING, notes that the Bank of England has left monetary policy unchanged with Ian McCafferty again the only member voting for a rate rise.

Key Quotes

“The minutes to the meeting show that the MPC remains pretty upbeat on growth prospects with the economy expected to have expanded 0.6% in 3Q15, which is around the trend rate of growth. Interestingly, they continue to downplay emerging market slowdown worries, stating that “there had so far been few signs of a material effect on business and consumer confidence in the advanced economies”.”

“As for inflation they suggest that the near-term outlook for CPI “appeared slightly weaker” than in their August assessment. This was largely due to energy prices with CPI likely to remain below 1%YoY “until spring 2016”.”

“Wage pressures are key to this debate and here the BoE acknowledged the tightening labour market is now being reflected in higher pay although they did cite better signs recently on productivity, which helps to offset these pressures.”

“Next week’s employment report should be firm though with wage growth pushing above 3%YoY and private sector wage growth approaching 4%YoY. Employment also looks set to rebound by around 150,000 in the three months to August following weakness relating the political uncertainty around the time of May’s election.”

“If financial market risk appetite continues to improve as well then we would suspect that Ian McCafferty will not be alone in voting for a rate rise at the November MPC meeting. We continue to look for the BoE to raise rates in the first half of 2016, well ahead of the 4Q16 move financial markets are currently pricing.”

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