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BoE rate decision: No fireworks expected – Lloyds Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist at Lloyds Bank, expects the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged today, but the simultaneous publication of the meeting minutes and the vote split will provide a ready sense of how the perceived balance of risks is shifting in the eyes of the MPC.

Key Quotes

“The Blue Book revisions for the latest GDP estimates revised lower the most recent growth momentum and, by implication, suggest less productivity growth and therefore stronger cost pressures. This raises the risk that another MPC member may join Ian McCafferty in voting for an immediate rate rise, supported also by sterling’s fall over the past month which would help to ease deflation concerns.”

“On balance, though, we believe an unchanged 8-1 vote split is the most likely outcome. With anxieties about the external backdrop providing an offset, scheduled MPC appearances in Lima this evening include Governor Carney and Deputy Governor Shafik.”

EUR/CHF turns lower after German data

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FOMC minutes to reinforce hawkish bias towards a 2015 lift-off – TDS

Paul Fage, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the minutes of the September FOMC meeting will be the key event for the day and the report should continue to reinforce the hawkish policy bias towards a 2015 lift-off in rates.
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