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AUD/USD seen at 0.6800 in 3 months - UBS

FXStreet (Córdoba) - That the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 2% was no surprise, although the AUD had a small "sympathy" bounce in our opinion, mostly driven by short covering, according to the UBS analyst team. They restate our bearish view on the AUD/USD of 0.68 on a three, six and 12-month tenure.

Key Quotes

“The media release accompanying the decision was nearly a carbon copy of last month's; no surprises there, as was the board's conclusion that the current settings are still "appropriate." That's not to say there were no changes; there were, but these were subtle. The most notable tweak was a toning down of references to China as being the main source of global equity market volatility. While the RBA acknowledged market volatility persists, the "…functioning of financial markets has not been impaired." The words differ from last month, but we believe the essence was unchanged, although undeniably softer. On housing, the RBA again saw prices rising strongly, not just in Sydney but also Melbourne. Regulatory measures, however, not interest rates, were still the preferred option to contain these risks”.

“As we said, while tweaks were small and somewhat surprising, we were more surprised by what the RBA didn’t say. We expected some expression of concern about ongoing soft demand in major trading partners, particularly given the trade balance result. And on the domestic front, no recognition was given to ongoing subdued retail spending data, and more importantly the housing construction cycle, which looks close to peaking. In our opinion, a lack of inclusion of these in no way excludes further downward revisions to GDP and CPI in the upcoming November RBA forecast update. In fact, we see this as likely given the challenging outlook. Although not our central view, as we enter 2016, we see greater risks that further rate cuts could be a necessary component in shifting growth back towards trend”.

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