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NOKSEK: Rebound on the cards - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggest that even though we continue to have a medium-term bearish outlook for NOKSEK, we have turned neutral on a tactical basis and as the risk of a correction higher grows, we prefer to sell rallies up toward 1.0250/80 in the weeks ahead.

Key Quotes

“NOKSEK has traded down below the parity mark, fulfilling one of our key FX calls for 2015. The speed of the decline has given us pause, however, and we evaluate whether spot has scope to trade meaningfully lower from here.”

“From a macro perspective, the fundamentals for NOKSEK continue to favour further declines as the degree of economic and policy divergence has deepened between Norway and Sweden.”

“Technically, however, the pair looks oversold on some measures while the trend lower seems to have lost a bit of momentum in recent days.”

“Our ‘fair value’ model currently suggests spot should be trading closer to 1.02. The degree of deviation between current spot levels and our model-implied value has recently reached an extreme where we have seen meaningful rebounds in the past.”

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