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Oct 7, 2015
IMF downgrades EM and developed economies growth – SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that IMF has revised downwards the growth of emerging markets and developed nations.
Key Quotes
“”The world GDP growth forecast is down to 3.1% for 2015 the lowest since 2009, when output was flat. The 1997-2006 pre-GFC average was 4%. But, it's in the IMF's DNA to look for things to improve and while the downward revisions and warnings of trouble will make headlines, if world growth picks up from 3.1% this year to 3.6% in 2016, while EM growth picks up from, 4% to 4.5%, forward-looking markets (especially FX) should focus on the direction of travel rather than the speed of growth.”
“And the logic in the short-term, may just be that even if 2016 is disappointing, the conditions for a Q4 rally in EM, and in risk assets overall, are in place.”
Key Quotes
“”The world GDP growth forecast is down to 3.1% for 2015 the lowest since 2009, when output was flat. The 1997-2006 pre-GFC average was 4%. But, it's in the IMF's DNA to look for things to improve and while the downward revisions and warnings of trouble will make headlines, if world growth picks up from 3.1% this year to 3.6% in 2016, while EM growth picks up from, 4% to 4.5%, forward-looking markets (especially FX) should focus on the direction of travel rather than the speed of growth.”
“And the logic in the short-term, may just be that even if 2016 is disappointing, the conditions for a Q4 rally in EM, and in risk assets overall, are in place.”