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NBP seen ‘on hold’ at its meeting today – TDS

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at TD Securities Paul Fage argues the Polish central bank (NBP) could leave rates unchanged at today’s meeting.

Key Quotes

“We and the unanimous consensus expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its key policy rate, the base rate, unchanged at 1.5%”.

“We do not think that the weak September inflation data will concern the MPC too much, as activity data is pointing to reasonable continued growth in Q3”.

“Our central scenario is that the policy rate remains on hold at 1.5% for nearly all of 2016 with rates then being hiked gradually late in the year or early 2017. However, we think that the risks to this scenario are skewed clearly to the downside”.

“The October elections are likely to result in a new government led by the populist Law and Justice party (PiS). They want to boost growth, although their plans to bash banks could have the opposite effect. They will certainly put in place a more dovish MPC early next year”.

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