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CAD: Canadian trade deficit likely fell in August - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pac Macro Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the Canada’s trade balance is forecast to deteriorate to -$1.6b in Aug (mkt -$1.1b) as a sharp -3.0% m/m decline in exports is expected to outpace a softer month for imports.

Key Quotes

“Much of the move can be attributed to a normalization in auto production following a large increase earlier in the year as seasonal retooling schedules were adjusted. Export volumes are likely to be better than the nominal figures—due to falling commodity prices—which is an important development that the Bank of Canada is monitoring closely.”

“The Ivey PMI for September is forecast to slip from 58.0 to 54.0 which is in line with the market consensus, though we would acknowledge a downside risk in keeping with the trend across international PMIs.”

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