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US: Non farm payroll forecast – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Danske Bank, suggest that today's key event is the US is non-farm payroll report and they expect a slowdown in job growth in September to 180,000 and even though this is slower than the recent trend, it is still enough, if sustained, to put additional downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Key Quotes

“Over the past three months, the US economy has added, on average, 221,000 jobs per month - a pace that cannot be sustained in an economy where potential labour force growth is only around 150,000 per month and even lower if we do not see an increase in the labour participation rate.”

“In our view, job growth will need to drop below the 160,000 mark before the Fed will see it as an obstacle to starting the tightening cycle later this year. In terms of the unemployment rate, we expect the rate to stay unchanged at 5.1% in September but to head below 5% by year-end.”

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