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EUR/USD forecast: all eyes on US Payrolls – Commerzbank and Rabobank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is trading on the softer side on Friday, hovering over the 1.1170 area ahead of US Payrolls for the month of September (203K exp.).

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued spot “has managed to bounce off the 55 day ma at 1.1152 today. The rally will ideally terminate 1.1184/1.1200 and the risk remains for a re-visit of the current September lows at 1.1105/1.1088. Failure at 1.1088 would trigger a move to 2015 uptrend at 1.0968.This remains a key break down point”.

Furthermore, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley added “a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on September 24 strengthened the odds in favour of a rate hike from the FOMC by the end of the year, in line with our view. Simultaneously the market is speculating that the ECB may be prepared to increase its asset purchasing programme, potentially by the end of the year. In essence this re-establishes the theme of interest rate differentials bearing down on EUR/USD in the coming months and we have maintained our forecast that EUR/USD can head lower towards 1.08 on a 6-months view”.

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