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Forex: EUR/USD hovering over 1.3070/80

The single currency left behind the levels above 1.3100 and dipped to the mid 1.30s after Chief B.Bernanke defended the ongoing QE programme, signalling that its benefits outweighed its costs by large. He also remarked that further stimulus could undermine the Fed’s exit ability.

The euro found extra selling interest after US Consumer Confidence rebounded to 69.6 in February, exceeding both estimates and prior print. Further US data showed improvements in the housing sector and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index as well.

The cross is now up 0.17% at 1.3086 and a breakout of 1.3123 (MA100d) would expose 1.3319 (high Feb.25) and then 1.3389 (MA21d).
On the downside, support levels align at 1.3018 (low Jan.7) ahead of 1.2998 (low Jan.4) and finally 1.2996 (low Dec.12).

Forex Flash: Italy's next government has to deliver change soon – Merrill Lynch

The Italian election result proves the electorate is strongly voicing a need for change to re-start economic growth, job creation and overall welfare, according to Merrill Lynch analysts. “The detailed breakdown shows the centre left under-performed expectations, losing seven major and registering a narrow victory in many others. On the right side, the Northern League, Berlusconi's ally, comes out significantly weakened in two of its three key regions: Piedmont and Veneto”. In the analysts view, a coalition between PD and Five Stars Movement is viable since they share similar views on institutional reforms, public administration improvements and liberalization measures, but negotiations may be difficult in the coming weeks. Also, the next government will likely have to deliver change or it may soon lose the mandate.
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Forex Flash: EUR/USD bolstered by support at 1.3040 – RBS

The head and shoulders pattern as indicated adjacent finally reached its downside target and the market found support at 1.3040 which was the low on the 9th and 10th of January. Recall that it was this level from which the market rallied aggressively up to the annual highs at 1.3709 initially. According to Technical Strategist William Moore at RBS, “The basing of the market at 1.3040 leads us to think that we’ll see the market drift up to 1.3198 possibly even to 1.3269 before we meet any meaningful resistance again.” In the short-term however, risk surrounding Italy has to weigh on the pair in conjunction with the fundamentals.
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