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USDCAD: Stimulating the Risks for the Fed policy day - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, note that the FX markets are in a state of paralysis today, ahead of the all-important Fed’s policy and the USDCAD broke through the 1.32 figure yesterday as crude oil prices rallied hard yesterday. But despite falling under pressure and below the pennant formation since early August, funds remained contained within the recent range and held around the 1.3170 level (current FV is closer to 1.2960).

Key Quotes

“That said, our base case is for the Fed to remain on hold but to sound hawkish. We think this will ultimately be USD positive and commodity-linked currencies will underperform.”

“Key levels we are watching on the topside is 1.3354, which is the full Fib retracement level from the May lows. We expect USDCAD to remain below that level on a hawkish no hike.”

“On the downside, we are watching the 1.3000/1.3050 area, which is the post-BoC cut level from July 15. a break below that would open downside potential towards the 1.28 area where we expect ultimate support on a very dovish pause from the Fed. We think this is the less likely scenario however.”

“One risk we are mindful of is that if the Fed hikes, the initial knee-jerk reaction is for the USD to go strongly bid. But if the Fed is hiking, one should expect that Yellen will sound dovish in the press conference which may eventually undermine the USD and pull funds lower.”

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