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Japan: BOJ Tankan to show deterioration of sentiment - Nomura

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, expects that the BOJ Tanken survey is likely to show that sentiment has deteriorated due to the financial market instability and as a result FY15 capex forecasts can be lowered slightly.

Key Quotes

“The BOJ is due to publish the results of its September 2015 Tankan survey on 1 October. We think that the current business conditions DI for large manufacturers, a component of the Tankan watched closely by the market, will come in at +14, down 1 versus the June 2015 survey.”

“The manufacturing DIs of the Reuters Tankan and the QUICK Tankan, both of which exhibit a strong correlation with the BOJ Tankan, were solid through August but fell sharply in September, possibly because of financial market instability.”

Tankan unlikely to trigger additional monetary easing: Assuming the BOJ Tankan turns out as we expect it to, we think that it will point to economic stagnation but no rapid slowdown, and on that basis is unlikely to trigger additional monetary easing. It looks as though the BOJ will decide whether to engage in additional easing based on various factors including the Tankan.”

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