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Forex Flash: What's next for CAD? - Nomura

Nomura Strategist Charles St-Arnaud notes that he has had a bearish view on CAD since mid December due to the negative terms-of-trade shock resulting from the oil price differential between WCS and Brent.

Since then, he sees that USD/CAD has increased by about 4% and he believes that the move higher is supported by weak Canadian commodity prices, a reduction in financial flows into Canada and weak growth and inflation performance, leading to a reduction in rate expectations. He thinks that USD/CAD could reach 1.05 next month, but commodity prices and the economic outlook would have to weaken more to move higher than that.

He writes, “We have held a bearish view on the Canadian dollar since mid-December because structural issues affecting the North American oil market are causing as negative terms-of-trade shock to the Canadian economy. Since releasing this report, USD/CAD has jumped from 0.982 in early January to a current level of 1.024, an increase of more than 4%.”

Forex Flash: Italian political uncertainty is weighing on the Euro and risk assets - BTMU

Lee Hardman, FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that political uncertainty has increased in Italy following the election results weighing upon the euro and risk assets.
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Forex Flash: USD/JPY’s range yesterday eclipsed that for the rest of February - Societe Generale

Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that USD/JPY’s range yesterday eclipsed that for the rest of February.
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