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Forex: EUR/USD awaits Italian election polls, capped by 1.3316

The EUR/USD upside extended above the 1.3300 mark, coming to as high as 1.3316 before easing back to just below the psychological level. US Chicago Fed national activity index is already out, down from 0.25 (revised from 0.02) to -0.32 in January, but investors are more focused on the Italian elections. The voting process is closed and now is time for first polls.

“A Berlusconi victory in both chambers – the chamber of deputies and in the Senate – would constitute the worst case scenario for the euro, which we only consider to be marginally likely though”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Carolin Hecht. The most likely scenario and greatest relief in the EUR/USD would be an alliance between the centre-left Pierluigi Bersani and Mario Monti.

“The intraday bias is positive, as the pair is heading for a test of 1.3305 resistance area. A break through the latter will set the focus on 1.3430 high”, wrote Deltastock.com analyst Stoyan Mihaylov, pointing to key support at 1.3180 low.

Exits polls show Bersani to win elections with 36% to 38% votes

Italian elections has finished on Monday and recent exits polls show Center-left's Bersani won the 36% to 38% of votes, while Berlusconi center-right took the 29%. Beppe Grillo has 19% and Mario Monti won 9.5%.
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Commodities Brief – Gold fails to breach 1600 barrier, falls off highs following Italian outcome

Gold prices surged earlier today during the overnight session and during European trading as investors braced for the results of the Italian electoral outcome. With news of a Bersani-led coalition set to take power the yellow metal waned slightly as it fell off its session high of 1594.05, losing strength in recent minutes to trade in familiar territory at USD $1586.45 per oz. At this juncture, the gold is being stabilizes by its 200-day SMA, which figures to hold the pair (1600 is a psychological barrier after earlier attempts failed to overtake the region today). In these moments, the price of gold is still in positive territory, up +0.93%.
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