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Forex Flash: Risk looks to take backseat as stimuli are in short supply – UBS

According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “Risk continues to look fragile globally Friday as fears of tightening in the US and China are finally forcing markets to have second guesses about the current run in risk. Unfortunately, there are a few more potential pitfalls to navigate over the next 72 hours or so, which could set the stage for a renewed rally in the euro, or a serious correction.”

The ECB will announce the details of the repayment intentions of the second LTRO today, in which 800 banks participated. On all counts, “improvements in macroeconomic and financial conditions need to be confirmed if the Eurozone needs to sustain its current flow momentum, especially as the political landscape becomes harder to navigate up ahead, starting with the Italian elections on Sunday (voting ends Monday).” Berry warns. Elsewhere, Canadian inflation figures will be released.

Forex Flash: EUR/USD confirms negative bias by closing week below 1.3202 - Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts will keep a negative bias to EUR/USD although still preferring to see a weekly close below here as added confirmation after the erosion of its 1.3202 7 month uptrend. “We have a downside target to 1.2679/61. This is the 61.8% retracement of the move up from July 2012 and the November 2012 low. Initial support is 1.3075/3, the 38.2% retracement of the same move”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, suggesting near term rebounds to terminate circa 1.3270. “The previous 3 month trendline should now act as resistance at 1.3308 and the outlook will stay negative below 1.3435”, she added.
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Forex: USD/CHF tries to retrace losses

The USD/CHF weakened during the Asian session to as low as 0.9286 and, from there, the pair has been moving mostly sideways mixed with some attempts at going back above 0.9300. Since the release of German GDP data, the market made two attempts of that nature.
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