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Commodities Brief: Gold falls to fresh 6-month lows against Oil

Divergences between Gold falling and Oil around 5-month highs is making the gold:oil ratio fall to fresh 6-month lows, last at 16.80, lowest since mid Aug last year, and well below its 50 and 200 day SMA around the 18.00/40 level. Other metals like copper also show healthy signs near 5-month lows, while other commodities like wheat, corn or sugar move around multi-month lows.

Gold, as a leading indicator for inflation, is currently printing fresh 6-week lows last at $1631 in the spot price and next futures contract expiring in April, following worst GDP data for the EU core since mid 2009. The precious metal is down -1.8% since year started, while silver is about flat in the same period, thus making gold:silver ration fall to 54 levels from past year's highs below 60, now trapped in between its 200 day SMA at 54.47, and the 50 day SMA at 53.36.

Oil in the other hand keeps near 5-month highs area, last at $97.23 for WTIC, off Wednesday fresh highs at $98, given political tensions in the middle east and talks with Iran on the nuclear energy issues, which could extend sanctions to the Islamic nation, keeping oil markets supply constrained. Oil is up more than +5% since year started, while CRB index overall is only +1.7% higher (an index tracks currently 19 commodities that originally started with 28), with US 10 year bond yields topping out so far at multi-month highs 2.05%, last around 2.00%.

Forex: EUR/JPY downside incomplete; room for 123.35/50 and even lower - FXA

Eur/yen looks like its rolling over, says David Solin, partner at FXA, suspecting that the short term downside pattern from Feb 6th high at 127.70 "is not complete", and he expects now "declines back to last week's low at 123.35/50 and even below."
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Forex Flash: Sell USD/JPY via options - Westpac

According to Robert Rennie, analyst at Westpac in Sydney, "verbal intervention has played a much larger part in pushing the ¥ down than most believe", thus making the recent G7 statement on soft warning to Japan about current policies "all the more important for USD/JPY" he says. "We therefore recommend selling USD/JPY via options" he adds.
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