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US consumers lower long-term inflation expectations in November – Nomura

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Research Analysts at Nomura note that consumer’s short- and long-term inflation expectations moved in different directions at the end of November.

Key Quotes

“One-year ahead inflation expectations, firmed somewhat in the final November reading, increasing by 0.2pp to 2.8%, but still 0.1pp below October‟s final number.”

“Although the preliminary University of Michigan‟s long-term inflation expectations measures have often been revised higher in the final report in the past, the final reading of long-term inflation expectations for November remained unchanged.”

“Five-year ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.6%, down 0.2pp from October and out of the stable 2.7-2.9% range observed in recent years. This is the lowest reading since March 2009.”

“In addition, there was no change in the share of respondents who expected gas prices to decline during the next five years in November.”

“This suggests that the recent decline in gas prices is not to blame for the drop in the five-year ahead inflation expectations, and that expected price declines are probably more broad based.”

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