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US consumer confidence expected to continue to improve – Rabobank

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Team notes today’s Revision of Q3 GDP to be slightly below the previous estimate, and the consumer confidence to continue to improve due to falling gasoline prices, rising stock prices and improving labor market perspectives.

Key Quotes

“The second estimate of third quarter US GDP growth is expected to be slightly below the first estimate of 3.5% (quarter-on-quarter, at an annualized rate). While consumption growth is expected to be revised marginally upward, recent trade data suggest that net exports have contributed somewhat less to Q3 GDP growth than suggested in the first estimate. All’n all, the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3.3% would still be a strong figure.”

“US consumer confidence (Conference Board index) is expected to continue to improve in November, supported by falling gasoline prices, rising stock prices and improving labor market perspectives. The Bloomberg consensus sees a rise to 96.0 in November from 94.5 in October. This would be in line with the preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan’s index of consumer confidence, which rose to 89.4 in November from 86.9 a month before. “

“The Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to fall to 16 in November, from 20 in October, according to the Bloomberg consensus. This will be the next clue for next week’s ISM manufacturing index, which can be seen as the second most important indicator of the US business cycle, after the nonfarm payrolls.”

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