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Euro core inflation may reach a historical low of 0.6% yoy – Danske

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Team expects euro inflation to decline back to 0.3% y/y in November and believes core inflation will reach a new historical low of 0.6% y/y (due for release on Friday).

Key Quotes

“Another fall in core inflation increases the likelihood of more easing from the ECB, as Mario Draghi has recently mentioned that low inflation is due not only to temporary factors, which the ECB can 'look through', but also because core inflation is affected by weak demand”

“We expect the ECB to lower its inflation projections in December but it has already indicated that this is underway. According to the ECB's chief economist Peter Praet, the projections could be revised to match the European Commission's outlook. This would imply a lowering of the inflation forecast for 2015 from 1.1% to 0.8%.”

“Low inflation expectations are also putting pressure on the ECB. “

“However, we expect the ECB to remain on hold until 2015, as it waits for the take-up of the TLTRO in December.”

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