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Preliminary expectation is for a soft headline CPI - DB

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Research Team expects Australia’s headline CPI to remain soft, estimating just a 0.3%qoq rise in the fourth quarter.

Key Quotes

“Our early assessment is for the headline CPI to rise around 0.3%qoq/1.9%yoy in Q4, and a rise in the average of the core CPI measures of around 0.5%qoq/2.2%yoy.“

“We expect declines in oil prices to weigh on headline inflation in the quarter, with petrol prices mid-way through the quarter suggesting a decline of around 4.0%qoq from the average across Q3. Partly offsetting this, we look for a further lift in tobacco prices stemming from the September 1 increase in tobacco excise tax.“

“We see few implications for the RBA if the CPI prints in line with our preliminary forecasts, which are broadly in line with the near-term outlook for inflation in the RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP).”

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