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CHF Gold referendum unlikely to pass – Nomura

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Research Analysts at Nomura note that the Gold referendum is unlikely to pass as support in the polls has fallen to very low levels.

Key Quotes

“Looking at previous Swiss Referendums, it is typical for the support behind “populist” initiatives to falter in the weeks prior to the vote. In the past some polls have shown support for “populist” initiatives (that did pass) to be +5/+6% over the 50% level, but then they only passed with a slim margin, highlighting that at these levels the gold initiative is unlikely to go through.”

“Even though we cannot rule out the possibility of this tail risk completely, we now assume 30 November’s referendum will virtually be a non-event.”

"That said, the focus for CHF should now slowly shift away from the Gold Referendum and towards the upcoming ECB meeting (4 December) and the SNB‟s quarterly meeting (11 December)."

"With EUR/CHF trading close to the 1.20 floor (we traded at 1.2009 yesterday) we have received many questions on the potential for the SNB to intervene at these levels.”

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