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US October inflation fails to fall from 1.7%, despite weaker crude prices – ING

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell of ING notes that US inflation failed to fall in October, despite sizeable declines in crude oil and US retail gasoline prices.

Key Quotes

“Headline inflation remains 1.7% (0.0%mom) How come? As we suggested in our preview of this figure, the seasonal adjustment used on gasoline at this time of year is particularly severe, and as a result, published CPI energy prices are down only 1.9%mom, with regular unleaded gasoline down only 3.2% apparently, not the 10% or more that we know that pump prices have fallen in the real world.”

“It not be until after the New Year before lower crude prices and lower gasoline prices begin to have a much more marked effect on US inflation. And at current levels of crude oil prices, we would not be surprised to see US inflation falling to about 1.0%YoY in April / May 2015.”

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