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China HSBC PMI, UK retail sales in focus - Westpac

FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key events to watch for on Thursday, including flash’ Nov China’s manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit, European Nov PMIs and UK Oct retail sales.

Key Quotes

"The ‘flash’ Nov reading on China’s manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit is due at 12:45pm Syd/9:45am local. The renewed downtrend in Westpac’s China data pulse (just 25.5% last week) definitely suggests downside risks to the PMI estimate. This warns that consensus for a modest decline from 50.4 in Oct to 50.2 in Nov may be too conservative; a dip back below the 50.0 xpansion/ contraction line is a real risk."

"Various preliminary readings on European Nov PMIs (also Markit) are due in early London. France is expected to remain below 50, Germany in the 51-52 area and the overall Eurozone indexes in modest expansion territory."

"In the UK there is more risk for GBP in the Oct retail sales report. The median forecast is 0.3% m/m, 4.2% y/y ex-autos, recovering from the disappointing -0.3% in Sep. The US data calendar is very busy. Oct CPI is seen little changed, 1.6% y/y total, 1.7% y/y ex-food & energy. Initial jobless claims (f/c 284k) cover the week of the Nov non-farm payrolls survey. The Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is seen easing slightly to 18.5 while Oct existing home sales are expected to tick down to a 5.15mn annualized pace."

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