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Forex: AUD/USD erases yesterday's gains

The AUD/USD fell to as low as 1.0327 during the European morning but is now stabilizing under a very tight range, at 1.0338/43 area. As yesterday's opening price was of 1.0337, the cross has basically erased all of yesterday's gains. On the side of Australia was Consumer Inflation Expectation, posing at 2.2% in February, higher than the previous figure of 2.0%.

UBS analysts said that the AUD should not count on China credit: "As much of Asia returns from the Lunar New Year holidays, investors will be dissecting the data and more importantly, try to figure out (1) where the money
went/will go in the coming months and (2) whether this marks a beginning of a new credit boom. However, even if the answer to (1) is real estate and to (2) is yes, we do not see any reason to look for a break higher in AUD beyond a short-term positioning squeeze", wrote analysts Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu, adding that there's already too much good news in the price.

Having reached cloud resistance on the 240 minute chart at 1.0365, the AUD/USD is expected to fail here and sell off to the 1.0237 23rd October 2012 low. "It continues to hold below the accelerated downtrend at 1.0368 and as a consequence should remain directly offered", wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, targeting short term the 1.0149 October 2012 low.

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