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Japan in recession – TD Securities

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Research Team notes that today’s weak preliminary Q3 GDP figures indicate that Japan is in recession.

Key Quotes

"The figures show Q3 GDP declined by -0.4% q/q (mkt +0.5% q/q) and 1.6% in annualised terms (mkt +2.2%), well below what the market was expecting, with not one analyst forecasting a drop in output (lowest annualised expected read was +0.8%, not the –1.6% fall)."

"The Q2 Annualised GDP was also revised down from –7.1% to – 7.3%. Looking at other components, Q3 Private Consumption was up +0.4% q/q, but was below the +0.8% q/q rise expected and Q3 GDP Business Spending was –0.2% q/q, well below the +0.9% q/q rise forecast."

"Despite Japan’s Economic Finance minister claiming Abenomics is not a failure, the market appears to believe otherwise."

"Final Q3 GDP is scheduled for release on 8th Dec but markets are anticipating that the sales tax will be scrapped and elections to be called for 14th Dec as the favoured date."

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