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AUD/NZD targets 1.23 by 2016 end -TDS

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Martin Schwerdtfege, FX Strategist at TDS, sees considerable support for the AUD over NZD and anticipates AUD/NZD to reach 1.23 levels by end of 2016.

Key Quotes

“Our AUDNZD target of 1.17 by end-2015 and 1.23 by end- 2016 makes this pair one of our favourite recommendations for 2015.”

“The AUD/NZD continues to grind higher from the trough of 1.05 earlier this year. With the RBNZ now in long-term retreat (we pushed back the next +25bp from March to September 2015) and the swaps market overpricing the risk of another RBA cut over the next twelve months, when this pair turns, it turns sharply.”

“A more medium-term driver for this currency pair is relative terms of trade. Australia’s bulk commodity prices have been in free fall since mid-2011, while in contrast, New Zealand commodity prices have only fallen this year, hence we see relative growth rates turning sharply. And comparing our long-run terms of trade projections with the AUDNZD, we see considerable support for the AUD over the NZD.“

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