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UK labour market data – Initial reaction – RBS

Ross Walker, Analyst at RBS notes the UK labour market data to be neutral, and sees it to be softer than expected.

Key Quotes

“Employment rose by 112k in the 3-months to September, a little below forecasts (consensus: 125k, RBS: 130k), though there was a very wide range of City forecasts (35k-245k). This is a fairly solid outturn (growth of 0.4% 3m/3m, 2.3% 3m y/y), though the detail of the employment data hint at some moderation, as previous out-sized gains from self-employment reverse (-88k in latest 3 months).”

“By and large, 'more of the same' UK labour market data. The employment data were marginally softer than expected, though still robust in an absolute sense, while wage inflation was fractionally above forecasts but still anaemic in any absolute sense (still running below CPI inflation).”

“Overall, a broadly neutral set of data. Perhaps the uptick in wage inflation will leave the 'hawks' feeling vindicated but, against this, the more telling developments may be moderating employment growth and average working time and some signs slowing growth in vacancies.”

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