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Forex: EUR/USD falls on ECB concerns over inflation

The release of the ECB monthly report triggered a new wave of downward movement, from 1.3414 to back below the 1.3400 handle, extending daily losses. The EUR/USD is currently down to 1.3375.

The ECB warned that the stronger Euro may pull inflation below the central bank's target. Its upside risks come from higher administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as higher oil prices, while and downside risks are due to weaker economic activity and, more recently, the appreciation of the Euro exchange rate. The ECB expects economic recovery to start later this year.

"With over 76.4% of 1.3352/1.3518 ascend being reversed so far, immediate focus shifts towards near-term base at 1.3352, also 50% of larger 1.2996/1.3710 upleg, below which to signal resumption of downtrend from 1.3710, towards 1.3300 and 1.3265/70 higher platform / bull-trendline off 1.2660. Negative near-term studies support the notion", wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica.

Commodities Brief – Precious metals pull back, supports in focus

Following a tight period of consolidation overnight, Gold prices pulled back again off of the 1646 mark before testing the 1642 region (slightly above initial support and the important 1640 barrier). However, the yellow metal has recovered slightly during European trading, as it operates above its 20 and 50-day MA Thursday. According to the Technical Analyst team at ICN.com, “the 1640.00-area is the potential reversal zone for a bullish harmonic Gartley pattern, while the completion of the pattern suggests a bullish rebound is imminent however. Thus, we will count on the pattern to cautiously expect an intraday bullish rebound.” Ultimately a move past the 1652 (February 13 high) level will be eyed as a confirmation of this trend. At the time of writing, gold prices have settled at USD $1643.98, trading negatively -$0.22 in these moments.
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Forex Flash: Bunds could dip to 141.50 – RBS

The selloff in bunds broke the risk area of 141.93, although the prices ultimately closed above the main support level. In addition, “the 76.4% retracement from the January-February impulse wave of 141.86 has been penetrated, suggesting there might be more weakness to the 141.60/48 region.” writes Dmytro Bondar, a Technical Markets Strategist at RBS.
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