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A Global & Australian Economic Perspective - NAB

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist at the National Australia Bank sees the global growth increasing to 3.4% in 2015 from 3% in 2014.

Key Quotes

“Recent indicators remain consistent with our forecast for continued moderate sub-trend expansion: global growth expected to increase from 3% in 2014 to 3.4% next year. The strength of economic activity is patchy between regions, which is increasingly going to be reflected in monetary policy and currency markets.”

“Historically low interest rates in big advanced economies, a relative slowdown in the pace of fiscal retrenchment and a gradual recovery in private sector willingness to invest (as risk fears recede) will assist the expected upturn. The recent fall in oil prices should also boost global economic activity."

“Jump in Australian business conditions points to strong start to Q4 but growth still constrained by weak terms of trade, soft labour market and signs of a softening building cycle."

"GDP forecasts up slightly: 2014/15 2.9% (was 2.8%) and 2015/16 3.2% (unchanged). Unemployment to peak at around 6½%. Cash rate unchanged until tightening in late 2015.”

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