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Speculators unlikely to give up easily on RUB – Rabobank

Piotr Matys, CEE FX Strategist at Rabobank sees the speculators unlikely to abandon their bearish bets on ruble.

Key Quotes

“The ruble rallied more than 7% from the recent all time low against the USD & EUR basket after Governor Nabiullina pledged to squeeze speculators by tightening RUB liquidity and the CBR adopted far more unpredictable approach to FX interventions and allowed the local currency to effectively trade freely.”

“While we witnessed a wave of profit taking on already seriously oversold RUB, the speculators are unlikely to abandon their bearish bets just yet given that the outlook is still overwhelmingly negative with further escalation of tensions in eastern Ukraine and even softer oil prices still the main source of risk for the ruble.”

“To summarise, betting against the ruble is now a far more risky strategy as the CBR can surprise the market with a large scale FX intervention at any moment after the RUB trading band was abolished and predictable regular interventions ceased."

"Tightening RUB liquidity is another tool the central bank intends to use against the speculators.

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