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AUD/USD could end this year in the 85-86 area - NAB

Analysts at National Australia Bank view Wednesday’s Q3 wage data to show a small up-tick in the annual growth rate from 2.6% yoy to 2.7% in Q3, and are lowering their forecasts.

Key Quotes

“We tentatively suggest AUD/USD could end this year in the 85-86 area, but the risk is clearly skewed towards a clean break below 85 in a continued stronger dollar environment.”

“We also now suggest that the eventual low in AUD/USD will be below 80 cents (we forecast 0.80 in late 2015/early 2016 and a low of 0.78 in H2 2016).”

“Our expectation that Australia’s Terms of Trade will find a base above its long term average, and that a relative shallow Fed tightening cycle will be a restraining influence on the extent of ultimate US dollar appreciation, means we do not think the AUD will trade back to – or through – its historical post-float average of around 76 cents.”

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