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Flash: Longer-term price signals and momentum remain bullish for USD/CAD - TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - “Short-tem price trends have turned a little heavy for USD/CAD, with the market slipping back to the low 1.03 area,” noted Sean Osborne, Head of FX Strategy at TDS

Osborne went on to comment, “the short-term chart shows a possible H&S top still forming, with the neckline trigger residing just below 1.03 on the intraday chart (1.0298, red support line on the 6-hour candle, above). But the short-term oscillator signals are not suggesting an overbought market while trend momentum has flattened a fair bit. Combining those signals suggests to us that a sideways range trade, rather than a short-term trend reversal is likely, though the risk of the latter is non-negligible.”

To conclude Osborne noted, “short-term support at 1.0298 is reinforced by the long-term breakout resistance (now support) at 1.0295 on the daily/weekly chart. We can allow for a little slippage below this point over a short period of time but a sustained slide below 1.0295 (and a weekly close below) would put a lot of pressure on the longer-term bull outlook (1.06) we have outlined recently. Daily and weekly trend momentum remains positive and longer-term price signals are bullish. We look for limited downside from here.“

EUR/AUD finds some ground in the 1.34 round area

EUR/AUD is last at session highs 1.3413, off recent double dip near the 1.3375 area as fresh weekly lows printed in late NY trade, coming down from previous weekly close Friday at fresh 1.5-year highs 1.3587. The cross is down -1.2% for the week on the back of Aussie strength, although still a +5.71% higher year to date.
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Will economic data later in week free EUR/USD from range bound behavior?

The EUR/USD finished the day sharply higher, at one point trading all the way up to 1.3107 beforre leaking lower in the day to close up 76 pips at 1.3070. Some analysts were pointing towards weaker than expected ISM data out of US as the main catalyst for the bullish move in the pair. Economic data out of the US will slow down a bit the next few days, but volatility is certain to pick up as we approach the ECB Rate Decision on Thursday, as well as the Non-Farm Payrolls number due out of the US on Friday.
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