OctaFX | OctaFX Forex Broker
Open trading account
Back

NZD data dependent, high demands to get excitement back - BNZ

FXStreet (Bali) - According to Economist at BNZ, following last week's dovish RBNZ, it will take a lot more strength in the NZ data to get the markets excited to buy back the NZ Dollar.

Key Quotes

With the Reserve Bank sounding less convinced about lifting its policy cash rate any further, it will probably take a lot more strength in the NZ data to get the markets excited.

So even the quarterly employment gain of 0.8% we expect for Wednesday’s Q3 Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) – generating annual growth of 3.2% (+74,000) and a further drop in the unemployment rate, to 5.4% – might fail to impress.

Then again, we admit this might be pushing it, when there are clear risks of disappointment in the Q3 HLFS numbers. On the hiring side, for example, September quarter decisions had an election to be wary of. In light of this, even market expectations, which are for a 0.6% jobs gain for the quarter and the jobless rate dipping to 5.5%, from 5.6% in Q2, might be over-egged.

And even if employment growth keeps barrelling on in Q3, closer to what we think, it might not be enough to soak up all the extra labour supply coming by way of soaring (net) immigration, such that the unemployment rate doesn’t fall any further. Frustration on the jobless rate could also come if the participation rate rebounds by more than the 0.1 percentage points we (and the markets) expect.

So beware the possibility of a not-so-strong headline number in Wednesday’s HLFS. But note that any disappointments are likely to be transitory or technical in nature. Fundamentally, New Zealand’s labour market is looking full of beans.

China's HSBC PMI offers no surprises from Oct flash

China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI came at 50.4 in October, unchanged from earlier flash reading, and 0.2 bp above 50.2 last month.
Read more Previous

Leveraged funds increased overall net long USD - ANZ

ANZ FX Strategists review the positioning data for the week ending 28 October 2014, noting that leveraged funds increased their overall net long USD positioning by USD0.4bn to USD31.6bn.
Read more Next
Start livechat