USD/JPY: 2-way trades – OCBC

USD/JPY jumped in early trade this morning, as demand for safe haven proxy faded in reaction to news that US government shutdown may be nearing an end. USD/JPY last seen at 154.17 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Price pattern revealed a series of lower lows

"Opposing forces of fiscal concerns, intervention risks and risk sentiments should continue to drive the pair. We observed that MOF officials appear to be more vocal each time USD/JPY goes above 154."

"Last week, Finance Minister Katayama did say she was 'watching FX moves with high sense of urgency', and that somewhat restraint USD/JPY from breaching higher. We continue to monitor if verbal intervention steps up intensity under the new Finance Minister or eventually progress towards actual intervention."

"Daily momentum shows tentative signs of turning mild bearish while RSI fell. Price pattern revealed a series of lower lows while highs appear flatlined – typically a descending triangle – which could signal fresh bearish pressure. Technical signs point to some downward pressure. Support at 152.50 (21 DMA), 151.60 (61.8% fibo). Resistance at 154.40 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low)."