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Flash: USD/JPY has a neutral bias – BTMU

Bank of Tokyo Misubishi UFJ analysts believe that USD/JPY has a neutral bias and can see spot ranging between 99.50 and 103.50 ahead.

They begin by noting the recent yen short unwinding may be due to recent fragile sentiments in the equity markets, but more attractive US Treasury yields did not support dollar buying. However, the add that as yen selling remains strong on the trade and FDI side, downside risk of USD/JPY may stay limited. Further, upcoming US economic indicators may also be mixed. They write, “Better non-farm payroll numbers may support US Treasury selling on QE-end speculation but not necessarily encourage further equity buying given their prior elevation.” With overall USD long bets at the highest since June 2008, they feel that USD/JPY may stay in narrow ranges for now before attempting further upside.

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