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Key market events; China in spotlight - Westpac

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation ABN notes the upcoming events.

Key Quotes:

“Australia’s data calendar is now quiet for the next week or so. Today we have only the Q3 NAB business survey, having already seen the Sep data".

"The obvious data highlight is the ‘flash’ Oct reading on China’s manufacturing PMI from Markit/HSBC (12:45pm Syd/9:45am local). Consensus is 50.2, unchanged from Sep and consistent with only sluggish expansion. We see risks of a surprise skewed slightly higher”.

“Also due are Singapore’s Sep CPI (f/c 0.9% y/y) and the CB Philippines (BSP) policy decision. Consensus is no change at 4.0% but a handful of economists look for another 25bp rate hike. This week BSP’s Guinigundo said a favourable inflation outlook provides policy “flexibility”, which doesn’t sound like another hike is imminent”.

“We will also see the advance Oct Markit manufacturing PMIs in Japan and Europe. The latter is market-sensitive. The French manufacturing PMI is seen retaining a 48 handle and Germany’s easing to 49.5, having fallen below 50 in Sep for the first time since June 2013. GBP also faces risk from the data calendar: UK Sep retail sales. These are expected about flat m/m, 3.4% y/y ex-autos, still about twice the average pace over the past 10 years”.

“The US data calendar has several second tier releases, with the main interest probably in initial jobless claims, given the week includes the survey period for the October employment report. A rebound to 281k initial claims is expected after 264k the week prior, which was the lowest reading since April 2000”.

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