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Australia: GDP forecasts revised down modestly - NAB

FXStreet (Bali) - Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist at National Australia Bank, shares the bank's view on the Austalian economy, noting that GDP forecasts were revised down modestly: 2014/15 2.8% (was 2.9%) and 2015/16 3.2% (was 3.4%).

Key Quotes

"Retreating confidence and conditions and likely sharp decline in terms of trade point to weak Q3."

"In September, capacity utilisation continued falling, forward orders declined and employment slumped further into negative territory. Still few signs of a sustained increase in non-mining investment to fill the emerging mining investment cliff."

"However, the easing in the AUD should assist trade-exposed sectors. Business credit barely grew in August and remains very weak. Terms of trade profile weaker in response to sharp declines in commodity prices."

"Consequently, GDP forecasts revised down modestly: 2014/15 2.8% (was 2.9%) and 2015/16 3.2% (was 3.4%). Unemployment rate still to peak at around 6½%. No change in cash rate expected until near the end of 2015."

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