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China's September CPI probably lower than consensus forecast of 2.3% - ING

FXStreet (Łódź) - Tim Condon from ING sees downside risks to China's 2014 inflation consensus forecast of 2.3%.

Key quotes

"September CPI and PPI data are due tomorrow at 9.30am local time."

"The consensus CPI inflation forecast is 1.7% YoY (prior 2.0%). For the PPI it’s -1.6% (prior -1.2%)."

"A high base effect in food component support the consensus forecast of lower CPI inflation. As elsewhere, food driving disinflation; the entire slowdown in headline inflation to 2.2% YTD in August from 2.6% in 2013 came from the food component (to 3.4% from 4.7%)."

"Good weather has delivered mostly downside inflation surprises in Asia. Falling oil prices make the inflation outlook as benign as we can remember."

"We see consider the 2.3% consensus forecast for 2014 inflation subject to downside risk (INGF 2.3%)."

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